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How will FDI into Vietnam fluctuate before the US-China trade war?

TS Nguyen Minh Phong said that with the current developments, if the trend of exchange rate stability is prolonged, the resistance to attract FDI inflows into Vietnam will grow.

In the first half of 2018, Vietnam has about 17,500 valid FDI projects with a total registered capital of 331.2 billion USD. The accumulated disbursement capital is about 180.7 billion USD.

As a percentage of GDP or per capita, FDI into Vietnam has surpassed China, India and most ASEAN countries. However, this capital flow may be affected by the US-China trade war, according to TS. Nguyen Minh Phong, recently published in the press.

Like most experts' opinion, Mr. Phong said that the war between the two largest and second largest economies is difficult to predict.

On both sides, Mr. Phong analyzed, in a state of fighting and negotiating, taking his national interests as the ultimate goal. The war is unclear but the consequences are very diverse, multidimensional and gradually affecting global supply chains, including Vietnam.

Commenting deeply on the impact on the currency, Mr. Phong said that the pressure to increase US dollar interest rates and the depreciation of the Chinese Yuan would join forces to increase the pressure on the VND exchange rate.

The pressure of devaluation of VND (increase of exchange rate for USD) will increase in the same direction with the increase of trade deficit and scarcity of foreign currencies, as well as the scale of USD reverse flow to the border before the attraction of interest rate difference. USD mobilization in Vietnam is currently at 0% and there is no sign of increase, with the US from 1.75-2% and will continue to increase slowly.

According to him, if the trend of stabilizing the exchange rate is prolonged, ie increasing the nominal value of VND, the disadvantage of exporting Vietnamese goods will be stronger and the resistance of attracting FDI inflows into Vietnam will also grow. up. This means the possibility of narrowing the production and exports of the foreign direct investment sector, due to exchange rate losses when investing in Vietnam.

On the other hand, if it is forced to raise the exchange rate, or devalue the VND, to increase FDI attraction, domestic inflation pressure will be the biggest challenge of the second half of 2018, in the context of pushing up cost inflation. and domestic monetary inflation remained the same, even continued to increase with the process of accelerating financial autonomy and marketing a large community of public non-business units in the planned route.

Therefore, this war, if prolonged, Mr. Phong said that it is possible to make reversals or reverse the inflows of FDI in the region and the world in the direction of avoiding markets that are subject to high tax rates and focusing on countries are less likely to impose taxes - more protection.

Therefore, Mr. Phong said that on the one hand, it is necessary to stick to the movement of the trade war, on the one hand, continue to improve the business environment, improve competitiveness, carefully prepare the situation scenarios, increase the ability to respond. flexible policy response and market response, flexible response solutions needed to limit the negative impact of the US-China trade war, maintaining momentum for Vietnam's economic development from the business sector. FDI.

FDI picture for the first 6 months of 2018


                                                                                                     Source: Economic life

Date Submitted: 31/07/2018 View: 41.493 Print the article
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